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Third Wave Covid-19 Likely To Hit In August With Peak In October

Researchers have said India may see third Covid-19 wave may hit this month and peak with less than 100,000 in normal scenario and maximum up to 150,000 in worst scenario. The wave will be smaller than both first and second wave of the disease.

The research that the surge in new cases will hit into the third wave of the pandemic has been led by Mathukumalli Vidyasagar at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) in Hyderabad and Manindra Agrawal in Kanpur.

However, the peak cases may be seen in October, told Vidyasagar to Bloomberg via an email stating that states with high cases like Maharashtra and Kerala, could “skew the picture.”

The wave is also not expected to be deadly as the second wave of the infection during which more than 400,000 cases were also registered in a single day. The research which forecasted lesser cases this earlier this year is based upon a mathematical model.

In their research in May, Vidyasagar, a professor at IIT Hyderabad had said that India may report peak in few days on the basis of the mathematical model. “Our predictions are that the peak will come within a few days. As per current projections, we should hit 20,000 cases per day by the end of June. We will revise this as needed,” he told through an email.

Although, in April, Vidyasagar’s team’s forecast that the wave would peak in the mid of last month was inaccurate. He tweeted at the time that it was a direct result of mistaken boundaries as “the pandemic was changing rapidly, even wildly, until about a week ago.”

He had even said that peak may be seen between 3-5 but the India Today had said that the peak would be on May 7.

Despite Centre’s warning to 10 states including Maharashtra, Kerala and many northeastern areas against the spread of the coronavirus, India recorded 41,831 Covid-19 cases and 541 deaths on Sunday.

Recently the experts have also suggested that the Delta variant in question, which can easily spread as chickenpox and can even be passed on by the vaccinated people may give rise to the new surge.

According to data from the Indian Sars-CoV-2 Genomic Consortium (INSACOG), nearly 8 of every 10 Covid-19 cases in May, June and July were due to this highly infectious Delta variant of Covid-19.

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