In the 2022 assembly elections, the third opinion poll by ABP News-CVoter (Centre for Voting Opinion & Trends in Election Research) predicts close races in four states: Uttar Pradesh, Manipur, Goa, and Uttarakhand. Punjab, the sixth state to vote early next year, appears to be headed for a hung assembly, with no party able to clear the majority threshold, according to a December poll.
While the India National Congress (INC) is in power in Punjab, the BJP is in charge of the other four states. According to a survey done in the first week of December, AAP remains in the driver’s seat in Punjab, with INC close behind.
According to the third opinion poll in Uttar Pradesh, Yogi Adityanath and Akhilesh Yadav remain the two front-runners for the position of Chief Minister.
The repeal of three problematic agriculture legislation in Punjab, as well as the suspension of farmer demonstrations, may alter some dynamics. According to the December tracker, AAP is still in first place, with 50-56 seats. With 39-45 seats, the incumbent INC is in second place.
The third opinion poll in Uttarakhand suggests that the BJP has maintained its lead and is on track to retain power. The INC is a close second, with the AAP a long way behind. In terms of vote share, the BJP leads with 39.8%, followed by the INC with 35.7 percent and the AAP with 12.6 percent.
The BJP continues to be the most popular party in Goa, with 17-21 seats. The AAP and INC are locked in a tight race for the second-largest party, with the former expected to win 5-9 seats and the latter 4-8. Other regional parties and newcomers will also play a significant role, garnering 6-10 seats.
According to the third opinion poll in Manipur, the BJP will face off against the INC in a close race, but will win. Against the INC’s 23-27 seats, the party is expected to win 29-33 seats.
BJP To Retain Power In UP With Reduced Margin
With a 40.4 percent vote share in Uttar Pradesh, a bellwether state ahead of the Lok Sabha election, the BJP is expected to win 212-224 of the 403 seats. The BJP previously won 325 seats with a 41.4 percent vote share in the last elections.
If the forecasts from the December survey come true, Yogi Adityanath will become the first chief minister of the state to serve two terms in a row.
According to the survey, the Samajwadi Party (SP), which has allied with Jayant Chaudhary’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RLD), will quadruple its seat total and finish second with 151-163 seats.
The BSP, led by Mayawati, is expected to win between 12 and 24 seats. According to the poll, the Congress, whose campaign is being led by Priyanka Gandhi and focuses on attracting female voters, might win two to ten seats. It won seven seats in 2017.
AAP Ka Punjab in 2022?
According to the poll, Punjab is set to have a hung Assembly, with the AAP emerging as the state’s single largest party.
This will be the first election in Punjab to have a four-cornered struggle. Almost every five years, the state has had a bipartisan election, with the Congress and the Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP coalition swapping power. This time, though, the SAD and the BJP are not working together.
According to the poll, AAP is predicted to win 50-56 seats, with Congress coming in second with 39-45 seats. To establish the government, a party must win at least 59 seats in the 117-seat Punjab assembly.
Surprisingly, the vast majority of respondents (23.7%) chose AAP chairman Arvind Kejriwal as their favourite chief ministerial candidate.
According to the poll, the BJP, which is expected to form a coalition with Captain Amarinder Singh’s Punjab Lok Congress, will get 0-3 seats.
Close Contest Between BJP, Congress In Uttarakhand
The Himalayan state of Uttarakhand, where the BJP has changed three chief ministers in four months, is on the verge of a head-to-head battle with the Congress.
The BJP is predicted to win 33-39 seats in the 70-member house, while the Congress is expected to win 29-35 seats, according to the poll. In terms of vote share, the BJP is anticipated to get 39.8% of the vote, with the Congress coming in second with 35.7 percent.
More than 33% of respondents supported former Uttarakhand chief minister Harish Rawat as their favourite CM candidate, followed by incumbent CM Pushkar Singh Dhami.
The BJP had a landslide victory in the last elections, winning 57 seats, the most of any political party in Uttarakhand.
BJP Likely To Pip AAP, Congress In Goa
According to the poll, the BJP is expected to retain power in the coastal state of Goa by a razor-thin margin, with 17-21 seats and 30% of the vote share. Pramod Sawant, the incumbent chief minister, emerged as the most popular candidate.
AAP may open its account by capturing 5-9 seats, relegating Congress to third place, after a complete washout in its first election in 2017.
In 2017, the Congress became the single-largest political party, capturing 17 seats to the BJP’s 13. The BJP, on the other hand, was able to gain power by forming a coalition with parties such as the MGP and the Vijai Sardesai-led Goa Forward Party (GFP).
GFP, on the other hand, has proclaimed its support for the Congress, and MGP has formed an alliance with Mamata Banerjee’s TMC.
Stiff Challenge For BJP In Manipur
Even though the ruling party has had a dream run in the North-Eastern states so far, the ruling party faces a serious battle in Manipur from the Congress.
In the 60-member Manipur Assembly, the BJP is expected to win 29-33 seats, the Congress 23-27, and the Naga People’s Front (NPF) 2-6 seats, according to the poll.
In Manipur’s 2017 election, the BJP did not win an absolute majority, like it did in Goa. However, it was able to create a government with the help of the NPP, NPF, and Lok Janshakti Party (LJP). With 28 seats, Congress had emerged as the single largest party.
