For gold, the fiscal year 2024–2025 was a glorious one. Indian spot gold prices jumped 32% in FY25, according to MCX data, well outpacing the equities benchmark Nifty 50, which increased by just over 5%.
Gold prices have risen to around ₹88,700 since they were close to ₹67,000 per 10-gram mark on March 28 of last year. On March 28, the derivatives market saw MCX Gold settle 0.05 percent higher at ₹88,850 per 10 grams. Concerns about the global trade war brought on by US President Donald Trump’s harsh tariff policies and increasing demand for safe haven assets have also caused international gold prices to reach all-time highs.
Over the past year, a number of factors combined to drive gold prices to all-time highs. The primary factors influencing gold prices over the past year have been shifting macroeconomic data, geopolitical uncertainty, central banks’ aggressive purchases, and expectations of rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. Trump’s tariff plans have sparked concerns that a massive trade war is imminent, which would accelerate inflation and halt global development. Because gold is regarded as a hedge against inflation and uncertainty, all of these factors have increased demand for the yellow metal. Volatility in the stock market and commodities due to geopolitical factors and Trump’s tariffs also pushed investors toward gold as a hedge.
The primary drivers of gold prices, such as central bank purchases and worldwide uncertainty, continue to exist, which has led to conjecture that domestic gold prices could rise to the coveted ₹1 lakh per 10 grams mark in the upcoming fiscal year 2025–2026 (FY26).
Furthermore, investors may continue to gravitate toward gold as a safe-haven asset due to worries about inflation and the possibility of an economic slowdown. Nevertheless, the majority of these advantages are fairly discounted in the present gold prices, and new catalysts would be required for the yellow metal to reach the ₹1,00,000 barrier. Gold prices may consolidate at higher levels without additional catalysts due to demand exhaustion and profit booking. Besides, a rebound in the stock market and the dollar could significantly challenge gold prices.
According to experts, if there is a more intense trade war, new tensions in the Middle East or Russia-Ukraine conflict, and macroeconomic indicators indicate stagflation in the US, the yellow metal may hit that level. Although there may be brief fluctuations in gold prices, the long-term outlook indicates that investors will continue to be interested in the yellow metal in FY26.
