The India Meteorological Department is monitoring the Arabian Sea as the first indications of a potential post-monsoon cyclonic storm have emerged.
In the next 48 hours, a low-pressure region is predicted to form over the southeast and adjacent east-central Arabian Sea, according to the IMD’s weather bulletin from Monday.
According to the procedure used to name cyclones in the Indian Ocean, if a tropical storm develops in the Indian Seas, it will be given the name “Tej”.
A cyclonic circulation has been observed over the southeast Arabian Sea and the nearby Lakshadweep region, according to a news report citing an IMD officer. As a result, the same area is likely to experience the formation of a low-pressure area.
At present, the probability of the system intensifying into a cyclonic storm is not notably high.
“As of now, the probability of this system intensifying into a cyclonic storm is not very high. The models have yet to confirm it. There is no unanimity in the model forecasts so far. We will have to wait for a few more days for a clear picture to emerge,” the official was quoted.
Due to warmer ocean temperatures October to December is among the favourable periods for the development of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.
In 2022, no tropical storm was formed over the Arabian Sea during the post-monsoon season, while the Bay of Bengal witnessed two tropical storms — Sitrang and Mandous.
According to Skymet Weather, cyclones in the Arabian Sea have a history of having erratic paths and timing.
The favored paths of the cyclones once they are over the center of the Arabian Sea are towards Somalia, the Gulf of Aden, Yemen, and Oman. However, in rare occasions, these cyclones make a U-turn and move closer to the coastlines of Pakistan and Gujarat, according to Skymet.
