The southwest monsoon moved into portions of the south Andaman Sea, the Nicobar Islands, the south Bay of Bengal, and certain regions of the north Andaman Sea on Tuesday, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). A weather official stated that a cyclone could be building in the Bay of Bengal.
“An upper air cyclonic circulation lay over Andaman Sea between 1.5 km and 7.6 km above mean sea level tilting southwestwards with height at 0300 UTC of today, May 13, 2025,” the IMD said on Tuesday, May 13. An upper air cyclonic circulation is located over northwest Uttar Pradesh, while another is located over West Rajasthan and the surrounding area at lower tropospheric levels, according to a press statement issued by the IMD on Tuesday, May 12. “The upper air cyclonic circulation over Northeast Assam & neighbourhood in lower & middle tropospheric levels,” the IMD said.
According to sources at the Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC), a low pressure system is anticipated to develop close to the east-central Bay of Bengal between May 16 and 22, as reported by ABP Bengali. Mostafa Kamal Palash, a Bangladshi meteorologist, cautioned that a cyclone might be building over the Bay of Bengal. A cyclonic circulation that forms between May 16 and May 18 may intensify into a cyclone by May 23 and May 28, according to a Facebook post made by Palash on Sunday.
The IMD has not yet verified that a cyclone has formed, though. Whether or not this cyclone will become into a cyclone cannot yet be predicted. According to the IMD, significant rainfall may occur in a number of regions “under the influence of these systems.”
Light to moderate rainfall, thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds were forecast by the IMD for May 12 in parts of Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan, Muzaffarabad; May 12 and 13 in Punjab, Haryana Chandigarh, and Delhi, East Rajasthan; and May 16 and 17 in Himachal Pradesh.
Gujarat, Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, Chhattisgarh, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, Kerala, and Mahe, interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Rayalaseema, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, and Yanam are also expected to experience light to moderate rainfall on May 12 and 14. It said, “Isolated heavy rainfall [are likely] over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya during 12th-16th and over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura during 12th-15th with isolated very heavy rainfall over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya on 13th-14th and over Tripura on 12th & 13th May.”
The IMD said in a post on X, “Southwest Monsoon has advanced into some parts of south Bay of Bengal, south Andaman Sea, Nicobar Islands and some parts of north Andaman Sea today, the 13th May, 2025. The Northern Limit of Monsoon passes through 5°N/75°E, 5°N/80°E, 6°N/86°E, 8.5°N/90°E, Hut Bay, 13°N/95°E. and 16°N/98°E.” The IMD said more progress is likely in three to four days.
The meteorological department said, “Conditions are favorable for further advance of southwest Monsoon over some parts of south Arabian Sea, Maldives & Comorin area; some more parts of South Bay of Bengal, entire Andaman & Nicobar Islands, remaining parts of Andaman Sea; and some parts of central Bay of Bengal during next 3-4 days.”
