Amid rumours of an attempt by MLAs in Manipur to form a government on Wednesday, sources at the Centre said it was doubtful that President’s Rule would be removed any time soon.
According to the sources, the Centre and the Manipur state apparatus currently prioritise peace over the formation of a government, and any political activity could sabotage the process, which has begun to yield dividends. “Neither the national leadership of the BJP nor the Central government wants government formation as of now. The possibility of this is bleak,” said a senior leader familiar with the developments in the state.
In an attempt to form the government, 10 MLAs met with Manipur Governor Ajay Bhalla on Wednesday, claiming the backing of more than 40 lawmakers. Nearly two years after the BJP-ruled state had degenerated into ethnic strife, President’s Rule was imposed in the state in February.
Later, BJP leaders stressed that it was only a courtesy visit. A leader frpm the state told, “In the BJP, there is a culture of discipline. The central leadership decides who will lead the party. We have to follow that.”
According to a source, the central leadership of the BJP is aware of the MLAs’ desires for a “popular” government and the reopening of the suspended Assembly and would make contact with them. “The top leadership is expected to intervene and talk to the legislators. The leadership understands the frustration of the MLAs,” a BJP office-bearer said.
With Manipur witnessing a new round of protests in recent days, the state’s peace process is dragging on slowly, and the Centre is concerned about the delicate border situation as well as the potential setbacks.
The Centre has taken a number of actions over the last three months of President’s Rule, including urging various organisations to turn in weapons that have been looted. Although there have been issues, Union HomeMinister Amit Shah set a deadline of March 8 for the return of unhindered transit between the Meitei and Kuki districts.
But, despite the lukewarm response of Kuki organisations, which have claimed they are not being involved in the talks, the Centre is confident that it is “on the right track”. “In fact, a government in the state could create more troubles for the Centre and its efforts,” the senior BJP leader familiar with the developments said. A BJP leader said: “Even all the weapons have not been surrendered yet. There are perhaps 3,000 firearms still out there.”
BJP leaders also point out that there is little guarantee that the MLAs who have apparently come together to stake claim to form a government would be able to keep their differences aside, particularly given the ethnic divisions. The first hurdle, for example, would be the choice of chief minister. “We do not see a possibility of unanimity,” said a source.
N Biren Singh, the chief minister under whom the crisis began and who held the position until President’s Rule was established in spite of numerous calls to replace him, would be the second major obstacle. The Kukis’ primary demand, according to one leader, is that Biren be excluded. The leader asked, “So how can we have a government with his involvement?”
According to party sources, there had already been several rounds of talks on Biren’s replacement, with several MLAs commuting between Imphal and New Delhi. Biren eventually resigned on February 9 before President’s Rule was imposed, though, because an agreement could not be reached.
