In preparation for the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections, the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have been hard at work developing their polling plans. The Congress and INDIA alliance are attempting to finalise a seat-sharing agreement in order to counter the power of Modi, while the BJP has set an ambitious goal of gaining 400 seats in the upcoming election. Recently, a C-Voter opinion poll has provided some important new information regarding potential seat forecasts for both parties in the northern states and South India.
The survey favoured the Congress-led grouping in the South but gave the BJP the upper hand in the north. The BJP is predicted to win 27–29 seats in Madhya Pradesh (which has 29 seats) and 2–0 seats in the Congress; in Rajasthan (which has 25 seats), the BJP might win 23–25 seats and the Congress 0–2 seats. The BJP may win 9–11 of the 11 Lok Sabha seats in Chhattisgarh, while the Congress may win 0–2.
The BJP is predicted to win 22–24 seats in Karnataka, where it lost the earlier-in-the-year assembly election, while the Congress has 4-6 seats out of a total of 28 seats. The Congress may secure 9–11 seats, the BRS 3-5 seats, and the BJP only 1-3 seats out of a possible total of 17 seats in Telangana, the second southern state under complete Congress party rule.
There are 110 seats available in these states, and the BJP is expected to win between 83 and 85 of them.
On the other hand, Punjab, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh are the five important states that have 223 Lok Sabha seats. The BJP+ is predicted to win 125–130 seats out of these. These states are essential to any party’s ascent to power. The BJP-led NDA is predicted to win 73–75 of Uttar Pradesh’s 80 seats, followed by the Congress + SP with 4-6 seats and the BSP with 0–2 seats.
Even though the Aam Aadmi Party is in power in Punjab, the Congress has come out on top in the poll. It states that the Congress may win five to seven Lok Sabha seats, the AAP four to six, the BJP two seats, and Shiromani Akali Dal two seats.
Congress+ (Shiv Sena-UBT, NCP-Sharad Pawar, and Congress) may receive 26–28 of the 48 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra, whereas BJP+ (BJP, Shiv Sena-Shinde, and NCP-Ajit Pawar) may receive 19–21 seats and the remaining 0–2 seats.
In West Bengal, where the BJP will take on the powerful Trinamool Congress in 42 Lok Sabha seats, the saffron party is predicted to win 16–18 seats, the ruling TMC to win 23–25 seats, and Congress+ (Congress, CPM) to win 0–2 seats.
There will be elections in Bihar for 40 Lok Sabha seats. Congress+ (Congress, JDU, and RJD) is predicted to win 21–23 seats, BJP+ (BJP, LJP–Ram Vilas, LJP–Pashupati Kumar Paras, HAM) 16–18 seats, and other parties 0–2 seats.
The NDA is predicted to win about 210 of the 333 seats available in these ten states. The BJP will have a difficult time gaining 90 of the 212 seats that are still up for grabs, which include 39 in Tamil Nadu, 25 in Andhra Pradesh, 20 in Kerala, 21 in Odisha, 14 in Assam, and 26 in Gujarat, if this survey is accurate. Although the BJP may win well in Gujarat and Assam, it still has a huge uphill battle to overcome in Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu, the Dravidian state.
States like Bihar, Maharashtra, Odisha, and the Southern Belt could dash the BJP’s hopes of setting a “2024 record” by taking more than 350 seats, which would be a victory greater than 2019. If these polls are accurate, the NDA might win a majority and give Prime Minister Narendra Modi a historic third term, but only if it wins a large number of seats in the 2019 elections.
